The odds are long, but the math makes sense.

That’s how Wall Street analyst Whitney Tilson explained his decision to run for Mayor of New York City to a group gathered for a fundraiser. 

I attended the event, held in the apartment of his friend Boykin Curry, a managing director at Eagle Capital. Another friend, podcaster and NYU Professor Scott Galloway, was there to add some star power. 

Tilson argued incumbent Eric Adams was beatable in part because he’s been such a disappointment having, among other things, been indicted on federal criminal charges. 

With no self-funded billionaire running, Whitney says he sees a path to victory in part because he expects the candidates to take matching funds, limiting spending and leveling the playing field. 

Whitney wants to raise $1 million to take full advantage of matching funds. The city matches money raised 8:1. Since primary turnouts tend to be low, he said the winner may not need that many votes.

Whitney is well known in the finance industry. He was a portfolio manager for two decades. In 2017 he started a research firm. He does have a track record of civic involvement, including founding or serving on the boards of Teach For America and the KIPP charter schools.

The best part of the night was hearing more about his background — his parents met and married in the Peace Corps and he grew up in Tanzania and Nicaragua — and also his take on the city’s future.

The key metric, he said, has been the exodus of New Yorkers since the pandemic. Anytime you have a net loss of residents it’s a bad sign.

He cited statistics on education, including the fact that a majority of New Yorkers are unsatisfied with the public school system and the fact reading scores are low. He talked about crime being a growing concern.

Whitney said he’s the only business person and only non-career politician in the race at this point.

He thinks that that political landscape may give him an edge. 

“The city is being completely mis-managed and no one can blame the Republicans,” he said. 

“People are voting with their feet.”

My biggest takeaway from the evening was how extraordinary it was to be able to be there in that living room and listen to someone who – however unlikely it seems right now – could end up running the city.

This was the second mayoral candidate I’ve been to see in an intimate setting. Last year, a friend took me to hear Scott Stringer speak to a couple dozen people in a living room in Park Slope.

People asked Stringer the same questions they asked Whitney: How will you reduce crime and make the subway safer? How will you do a better job picking up the trash.

They are simple questions that defy easy answers.